Trailing And The First To Bet
In part 2 of this post let's take a look at some situations where you are trailing. If trailing and the first to bet you're already at a double disadvantage. If the stacks are relatively close, bet enough to take the lead. You still have the luxury of seeing a few hands and maybe catching up due to good fortune or bad wagers by your opponent. If your chip deficit is large or gets to be so, losing such a catch up bet could leave your crippled. In that case your best option is to go all in and either get back in the match or die trying.
Trailing And The Second To Bet
Even though you're trailing you now have the advantage of position. The conventional approach is to take the high. Simply bet enough to take the lead based on what your opponent bets and your chip differential. If at some point the chip differential is high you should again consider going all in. As usual, this is the best option if losing a smaller wager will leave you effectively crippled.
The Correlation Bet
Another viable strategy is correlating bets with your opponent when trailing. It works best with close chip stacks and many hands to go before and EH. For instance, you have just completed hand 16 and have chip counts within 20% of each other.
EXAMPLE - Hand 17 @ 100,000 max/1,000 min
You 178,000 chips - bets 12,000
Seat 2 190,000 chips -bets 12,000 (Button)
Correlating bets for a few hands gives you the opportunity to lay back and try to gain the chip lead without risking a disproportionate amount of your chips. A win coupled with an opponents loss results in a reversed chip position with you taking the lead. If unsuccessful on hand 17 it could be repeated on hand 19 and 21 under similar favorable conditions. Be prepared to abandon correlating if the reversal goes against you.
Countering The Correlation Bet
You know the power of the correlation bet. Let's examine an effective counter measure against an opponent with the lead who correlates with you.
EXAMPLE - Hand 26 @ 100,000 max/1,000 min
You 125,000 chips - bets 3,500 (Button)
Seat 2 128,000 chips - bets 3,500
It is a correct strategy to make a bet that is slightly larger than your deficit here. This seems rather obvious but consider the power behind it. Making this size bet gives you four ways to pass your correlation betting opponent.
1) A win vs. a loss - you take the lead at 128,500 to 124,500
2) A push vs. a loss - you take the lead at 125,000 to 124,500
3) A win vs. a push - you take the lead at 128,500 to 125,000
4) A win (double) vs. a win - you take the lead at 132,000 to 131,500
In contrast, suppose you had chosen to bet only 2,000 chips. The only way you could take the lead is with a win coupled with an opponents loss. You move up to 127,000 chips and they move down to 126,000 chips. No other outcome combination favors you. Making a bet slightly larger than your deficit increases your chances of taking the lead.
December 17, 2008
December 15, 2008
15) Strategy: Playing Heads Up
Playing Heads Up
Heads up play is fairly simple to describe. If you're ahead, make a bet that will keep the lead. If behind, make a bet that will take the lead. It gets more complicated according to who must bet first and whether that player currently has the lead. The advantage of position is much greater when playing one on one. Being second to act will almost always give you the option to take the high and the lead.
Leading And First To Bet
The objective with the lead is to maintain or extend it. There is no reason to take unwarranted risks with your lead. Your maximum bet amount should be the margin of your lead.
EXAMPLE - Hand 26 @ 100,000 max/1,000 min
You 139,000 chips - bets 10,000 (Button)
Seat 2 129,000 chips
More often than not you will keep your lead due to similar win or loss results. Be cautious about doubling down or splitting pairs. A loss or losses will almost certainly cost you the lead. Since you're out of position your opponent will see your results before acting. That information can make their hand decisions easier or even clear cut. By the way, you should always be on the look out as the second player to act for these types of opportunities. For example, if an opponent splits and loses you might be able to surrender and take the lead.
Leading And Second To Bet
Most win or loss results are shared between players. If the stack sizes are close you can match your opponents bet and have a good chance of maintaining the lead. An exception to matching is having a large chip lead and an opponent that goes all in.
EXAMPLE - Hand 27 @ 100,000 max/1,000 min
You 168,000 chips - bets 15,000
Seat 2 90,000 chips - bets 90,000 (Button)
In this case you can choose to bet enough to maintain the lead if you both win. This gives you the opportunity to with the round if the opponent goes broke but keeping the lead if you both win the hand. Should you lose and your opponent win the hand you chip deficit is 153,000 versus 180,000. This difference is manageable in the three remaining hands of play. In the next post we'll look at heads up play when you are trailing.
Heads up play is fairly simple to describe. If you're ahead, make a bet that will keep the lead. If behind, make a bet that will take the lead. It gets more complicated according to who must bet first and whether that player currently has the lead. The advantage of position is much greater when playing one on one. Being second to act will almost always give you the option to take the high and the lead.
Leading And First To Bet
The objective with the lead is to maintain or extend it. There is no reason to take unwarranted risks with your lead. Your maximum bet amount should be the margin of your lead.
EXAMPLE - Hand 26 @ 100,000 max/1,000 min
You 139,000 chips - bets 10,000 (Button)
Seat 2 129,000 chips
More often than not you will keep your lead due to similar win or loss results. Be cautious about doubling down or splitting pairs. A loss or losses will almost certainly cost you the lead. Since you're out of position your opponent will see your results before acting. That information can make their hand decisions easier or even clear cut. By the way, you should always be on the look out as the second player to act for these types of opportunities. For example, if an opponent splits and loses you might be able to surrender and take the lead.
Leading And Second To Bet
Most win or loss results are shared between players. If the stack sizes are close you can match your opponents bet and have a good chance of maintaining the lead. An exception to matching is having a large chip lead and an opponent that goes all in.
EXAMPLE - Hand 27 @ 100,000 max/1,000 min
You 168,000 chips - bets 15,000
Seat 2 90,000 chips - bets 90,000 (Button)
In this case you can choose to bet enough to maintain the lead if you both win. This gives you the opportunity to with the round if the opponent goes broke but keeping the lead if you both win the hand. Should you lose and your opponent win the hand you chip deficit is 153,000 versus 180,000. This difference is manageable in the three remaining hands of play. In the next post we'll look at heads up play when you are trailing.
December 9, 2008
14) Strategy: The Secret Bet - Part 2
The Secret Bet
The use of the secret bet has many nuances that can give you advantages over other players. Let's take a look at several more situations you might find yourself in and how to optimize the use of the secret bet.
Position Considerations
A common use of the secret bet is on the first elimination hand if you have poor position. This is almost mandatory in a close race since an open wager would allow opponents to scale their bets accordingly. It's not unusual for the first several players to go secret on the first EH. Unless you have a large lead it's almost necessary to go secret when out of position. With a lead, you might be able to open bet and take the high on one or more players. Of course, base this on a maximum chip potential calculation for the lowest stacks.
If you are trailing badly and in poor position consider going all in in the open and saving your secret bet. Opponents probably expect you to go all in anyway so the element of surprise is lost. Going all in in the open can put a lot of pressure on others and could confuse them. Obviously, if you are last to act there is little reason to ever go secret. The exception could be if you think the subsequent use of a secret action will be helpful in the situation.
Mix It Up
Try to avoid making a predictable secret bet over and over. If possible mix it up to throw off an observant opponent. You might face the same opponent over several rounds in a tournament or repeatedly on a website. Any patterns you show could be used against you during that round or future rounds. An astute opponent will have a significant advantage if your tendencies are obvious. By the same token, keep track of your regular opponents tendencies. It's not always possible to mix it up but examples of tendencies could be making very large bets, very small bets, or going all in every time.
The $0 Option
Keep in mind that using the secret bet gives you the option to bet $0. Consider this option because most of your opponents will not put you on a $o bet. It can be a useful tool if you are near the lead or have a large lead. In a sense it is comparable to taking the low without opponents losing their hands.
Here's an interesting ploy used with players yet to act behind you. Use a secret action and double down for $0 or the minimum regardless of what amount if any you secret bet. This has the net effect of hitting your hand once but adds deception to your play. This flurry of secret bet with secret action activity could increase your opponents confusion and lead them to make a mistake when it's their turn to act.
The use of the secret bet has many nuances that can give you advantages over other players. Let's take a look at several more situations you might find yourself in and how to optimize the use of the secret bet.
Position Considerations
A common use of the secret bet is on the first elimination hand if you have poor position. This is almost mandatory in a close race since an open wager would allow opponents to scale their bets accordingly. It's not unusual for the first several players to go secret on the first EH. Unless you have a large lead it's almost necessary to go secret when out of position. With a lead, you might be able to open bet and take the high on one or more players. Of course, base this on a maximum chip potential calculation for the lowest stacks.
If you are trailing badly and in poor position consider going all in in the open and saving your secret bet. Opponents probably expect you to go all in anyway so the element of surprise is lost. Going all in in the open can put a lot of pressure on others and could confuse them. Obviously, if you are last to act there is little reason to ever go secret. The exception could be if you think the subsequent use of a secret action will be helpful in the situation.
Mix It Up
Try to avoid making a predictable secret bet over and over. If possible mix it up to throw off an observant opponent. You might face the same opponent over several rounds in a tournament or repeatedly on a website. Any patterns you show could be used against you during that round or future rounds. An astute opponent will have a significant advantage if your tendencies are obvious. By the same token, keep track of your regular opponents tendencies. It's not always possible to mix it up but examples of tendencies could be making very large bets, very small bets, or going all in every time.
The $0 Option
Keep in mind that using the secret bet gives you the option to bet $0. Consider this option because most of your opponents will not put you on a $o bet. It can be a useful tool if you are near the lead or have a large lead. In a sense it is comparable to taking the low without opponents losing their hands.
Here's an interesting ploy used with players yet to act behind you. Use a secret action and double down for $0 or the minimum regardless of what amount if any you secret bet. This has the net effect of hitting your hand once but adds deception to your play. This flurry of secret bet with secret action activity could increase your opponents confusion and lead them to make a mistake when it's their turn to act.
December 8, 2008
13) Strategy: The Secret Bet
The Secret Bet - When is it used?
Here's a rule of thumb on when to use the secret bet. Save it as long as you can but use it as soon as you must. It's a waste to be eliminated from a round without using it. It's best possible use could be on Hand 30 when you have the button. The reality is that seldom will events leave you with your secret bet that late in the round.
Sometimes an opponent or opponents in front of you will make an open bet that you can take advantage of. You might have the opportunity to guarantee your survival based on open wagering. If so, consider going open yourself and saving your secret bet. Don't waste it on a marginal situation. It could be very useful later in the round when your are in true danger of elimination.
The Secret Bet - How is it Used?
The secret bet is used as a means of deception. Whenever possible use it to mislead opponents by making a bet they wouldn't guess. After all, if they could guess it and bet accordingly what's the point? Use it to make a bet they perhaps wouldn't make if your bet had been made in the open. That is, use it to induce a mistake. Unless one is in last place or near it, going all in is probably not optimal use of the secret bet. Don't make a bet that if you lose it and are not eliminated, will leave you crippled for the remainder of the round. Better to go all in under this circumstance.
Selecting a bet size for the secret bet is not an exact science with an easy formula to follow. There is an element of intuition involved along with some finesse. Consider your impressions of your opponents play so far. Based on what you've seen ask yourself who is aggressive, who is playing it safe, who is desperate, and who is confused. These can be clues as to what their secret bet contains and a signal for what you should bet.
It may be best to to target your secret bet for the middle of the pack. Remember that the object is to avoid last place and survive the EH. If there are multiple players left, analyze the chip counts and focus on the second or third place stacks. Think about what they're thinking and what they might bet given the situation. Reach some general conclusions about their probable actions and bet just enough to stay in front of or pass them. You can expect the last or second from last players to make large wagers if not going all in. Calculate their chip potentials and factor those totals into your bet amount.
Here's a rule of thumb on when to use the secret bet. Save it as long as you can but use it as soon as you must. It's a waste to be eliminated from a round without using it. It's best possible use could be on Hand 30 when you have the button. The reality is that seldom will events leave you with your secret bet that late in the round.
Sometimes an opponent or opponents in front of you will make an open bet that you can take advantage of. You might have the opportunity to guarantee your survival based on open wagering. If so, consider going open yourself and saving your secret bet. Don't waste it on a marginal situation. It could be very useful later in the round when your are in true danger of elimination.
The Secret Bet - How is it Used?
The secret bet is used as a means of deception. Whenever possible use it to mislead opponents by making a bet they wouldn't guess. After all, if they could guess it and bet accordingly what's the point? Use it to make a bet they perhaps wouldn't make if your bet had been made in the open. That is, use it to induce a mistake. Unless one is in last place or near it, going all in is probably not optimal use of the secret bet. Don't make a bet that if you lose it and are not eliminated, will leave you crippled for the remainder of the round. Better to go all in under this circumstance.
Selecting a bet size for the secret bet is not an exact science with an easy formula to follow. There is an element of intuition involved along with some finesse. Consider your impressions of your opponents play so far. Based on what you've seen ask yourself who is aggressive, who is playing it safe, who is desperate, and who is confused. These can be clues as to what their secret bet contains and a signal for what you should bet.
It may be best to to target your secret bet for the middle of the pack. Remember that the object is to avoid last place and survive the EH. If there are multiple players left, analyze the chip counts and focus on the second or third place stacks. Think about what they're thinking and what they might bet given the situation. Reach some general conclusions about their probable actions and bet just enough to stay in front of or pass them. You can expect the last or second from last players to make large wagers if not going all in. Calculate their chip potentials and factor those totals into your bet amount.
December 4, 2008
12) Strategy: Playing Elimination Hands
Playing Elimination Hands
In order to survive a round and advance you will probably have to play multiple elimination hands. Recall that these elimination hands are hands 8, 16, 25, and 30. The approach to these hands is somewhat of a subjective process and you'll need to develop a multiple styles that fit the specific situation. There are several betting techniques that will help you maximize your chances of success. Do not lock in your bet until it's your turn to act. Other players open bets can change your betting strategy. Remember that you goal is just to not be in last place after the EH.
Shoot for The Middle
Any strategy should take into account the number of players remaining in the EH. When there are four to seven players in the hand you have more room to maneuver than when there are just two or three players participating. With a larger number of players you should consider shooting for the middle of the pack. Shooting for the middle will usually entail a medium sized bet that will not subject you to a wide swing. By targeting the middle, missing could still leave you enough leeway to survive the EH. Keep an eye on the last place players and anticipate their bets as they usually will bet big.
Don't Survive Crippled
Another consideration is to not have a crippled stack after surviving an EH. This would essentially have the same effect as having been eliminated. If you survive the EH but are crippled then you did not think ahead as to what stack size it will take to remain competitive for the rest of the round. More often than not, going all in and surviving as a threat was probably your better option.
Do Some Calculations
If you are amongst the leaders take a look at the last place players and do some calculations. What are their maximum chip potentials if they win? What are their maximum chip potentials if they win with a blackjack? With this information you could bet an amount that even if lost, will still guarantee your survival. Also look for players that open bet before you. This type of information could allow you to take the high or low over several players and maximize your chances for survival. After you see the outcomes of players to your right don't forget to consider the surrender option if it guarantees your survival.
In order to survive a round and advance you will probably have to play multiple elimination hands. Recall that these elimination hands are hands 8, 16, 25, and 30. The approach to these hands is somewhat of a subjective process and you'll need to develop a multiple styles that fit the specific situation. There are several betting techniques that will help you maximize your chances of success. Do not lock in your bet until it's your turn to act. Other players open bets can change your betting strategy. Remember that you goal is just to not be in last place after the EH.
Shoot for The Middle
Any strategy should take into account the number of players remaining in the EH. When there are four to seven players in the hand you have more room to maneuver than when there are just two or three players participating. With a larger number of players you should consider shooting for the middle of the pack. Shooting for the middle will usually entail a medium sized bet that will not subject you to a wide swing. By targeting the middle, missing could still leave you enough leeway to survive the EH. Keep an eye on the last place players and anticipate their bets as they usually will bet big.
Don't Survive Crippled
Another consideration is to not have a crippled stack after surviving an EH. This would essentially have the same effect as having been eliminated. If you survive the EH but are crippled then you did not think ahead as to what stack size it will take to remain competitive for the rest of the round. More often than not, going all in and surviving as a threat was probably your better option.
Do Some Calculations
If you are amongst the leaders take a look at the last place players and do some calculations. What are their maximum chip potentials if they win? What are their maximum chip potentials if they win with a blackjack? With this information you could bet an amount that even if lost, will still guarantee your survival. Also look for players that open bet before you. This type of information could allow you to take the high or low over several players and maximize your chances for survival. After you see the outcomes of players to your right don't forget to consider the surrender option if it guarantees your survival.
December 1, 2008
11) Strategy: Non Basic Strategy Plays II
The Free Card
A cousin of the swing bet is taking The Free Card. This special circumstance calls for a non basic strategy play when busting your hand is not worse than standing with a useless total. You are able to take a free card in an attempt to make a winning hand with a targeted total.
EXAMPLE - Hand 30 @ 25,000 max/ 500 min
You 57,500 chips - bets 9,000 - draws 10+7 / hit to target of 19,20,21
Seat 2 65,000 chips - bets 18,000 - draws Q+8 / stands (Button)
Dealer shows 6/?
Your opponent has taken the high with a bet of 18,000 chips. This covers you if you make a maximum 25,000 chip bet and you both win. However, knowing this you have taken the low and bet 9,000 chips which gives you the win if you both lose. You opponent draws a hard 18 and stands while you draw a total of 17.
Notice that if the dealer makes a hand total of 19,20, or 21 you win the round. If the dealer makes any other total you lose the round. However if the dealer makes a total of 18 and pushes with your opponent it opens a window for you to win. You should hit your hand until you total 19, 20, or 21. Even if you bust, it is no worse than standing on your 17. Take your free card and shoot for the win.
Being able to recognize these types of situations is a real advantage. Although they may seem complicated, now you know the pattern to look for. Think about other scenarios where you can make non basic strategy decisions and you'll be more prepared when they appear.
A cousin of the swing bet is taking The Free Card. This special circumstance calls for a non basic strategy play when busting your hand is not worse than standing with a useless total. You are able to take a free card in an attempt to make a winning hand with a targeted total.
EXAMPLE - Hand 30 @ 25,000 max/ 500 min
You 57,500 chips - bets 9,000 - draws 10+7 / hit to target of 19,20,21
Seat 2 65,000 chips - bets 18,000 - draws Q+8 / stands (Button)
Dealer shows 6/?
Your opponent has taken the high with a bet of 18,000 chips. This covers you if you make a maximum 25,000 chip bet and you both win. However, knowing this you have taken the low and bet 9,000 chips which gives you the win if you both lose. You opponent draws a hard 18 and stands while you draw a total of 17.
Notice that if the dealer makes a hand total of 19,20, or 21 you win the round. If the dealer makes any other total you lose the round. However if the dealer makes a total of 18 and pushes with your opponent it opens a window for you to win. You should hit your hand until you total 19, 20, or 21. Even if you bust, it is no worse than standing on your 17. Take your free card and shoot for the win.
Being able to recognize these types of situations is a real advantage. Although they may seem complicated, now you know the pattern to look for. Think about other scenarios where you can make non basic strategy decisions and you'll be more prepared when they appear.
November 28, 2008
10) Strategy: Non- Basic Strategy Plays
Consider your non-basic strategy options when they present themselves. The use of these options is almost exclusive to the special circumstances presented by tournament play. Depending on the situation, they may be your only way to survive the round. Learn to recognize when they are your best if not only option.
Splits
Would you consider splitting tens versus a dealers five or six up card in most situations? Probably not, but if you're behind during a round this is a chance to make a move up. Take the opportunity to get more chips on the table and split them.
EXAMPLE - Hand 21 @25,000 max/500 min
You 30,000 chips - bets 5,000 / dealt K+K
Seat 2 41,500 chips - bets 2,000
Seat 3 32,000 chips - bets 1,500
Seat 4 36,000 chips - bets 2,500 (Button)
Seat 5 37,000 chips - bets 2,000
Dealer 6/?
This example is a set up to split the K/K and get another 5,000 chips in action. Win both hands and you jump to 40,000 chips and catch up. If you lose, you'll still have 20,000 chips and be within a one bet all in striking distance of the leaders.
Double Down
A bit less obvious is doubling down with a made hand. A very unorthodox play and totally contrary to basic strategy but sometimes your only option.
EXAMPLE - Hand 30 @ 100,000 max/1,000 min
You 175,000 chips - bets 100,000 - draws K+7 / must double down
Seat 2 175,500 chips - bets 100,000 - draws Q+7 / stands (Button)
Dealer shows 5/?
You must double for less for at least 1,000 chips and take a card. It's you only chance to win because if you stand you will definitely lose the round. In fact, you must do the same for any total
of 17 or under.
The Swing
This non-basic strategy play does not require splitting or doubling down but can be just as effective. It is known as playing for the swing and involves you targeting a specific hand total. The desired specific hand total is at least 2 points higher than the opponents total. This allows for the possibility of the opponent losing and you winning if the dealer makes a hand between your totals.
EXAMPLE - Hand 25 @ 25,000 max/500 min
You 55,000 chips - bets 25,000 - draws 4+3/Q/hit to target 19,20,21
Seat 2 91,000 chips - bets 19,500 - draws J+8/stands (Button)
Dealer shows 5/?
Your opponent has correctly bet enough to cover you even if you manage to double up via a split or double down. He has made a bet such that he wins the round if you both win or both lose the hand. Notice that you can win the round with a win coupled with an opponents loss. This is the swing opportunity you are aiming for.
Suppose your opponent draws a hard 18 and stands. You draw a total of hard 17. Doubling at this point is useless as your best card would be an Ace giving you the same result as your opponent. Your therefore hit and draw a Q for a hard total of 17. You must now continue to hit targeting a total of 19, 20, or 21. You win and your opponent loses if the dealer makes a hand in between your totals. This is the swing and although rare, represents your only chance to win.
Splits
Would you consider splitting tens versus a dealers five or six up card in most situations? Probably not, but if you're behind during a round this is a chance to make a move up. Take the opportunity to get more chips on the table and split them.
EXAMPLE - Hand 21 @25,000 max/500 min
You 30,000 chips - bets 5,000 / dealt K+K
Seat 2 41,500 chips - bets 2,000
Seat 3 32,000 chips - bets 1,500
Seat 4 36,000 chips - bets 2,500 (Button)
Seat 5 37,000 chips - bets 2,000
Dealer 6/?
This example is a set up to split the K/K and get another 5,000 chips in action. Win both hands and you jump to 40,000 chips and catch up. If you lose, you'll still have 20,000 chips and be within a one bet all in striking distance of the leaders.
Double Down
A bit less obvious is doubling down with a made hand. A very unorthodox play and totally contrary to basic strategy but sometimes your only option.
EXAMPLE - Hand 30 @ 100,000 max/1,000 min
You 175,000 chips - bets 100,000 - draws K+7 / must double down
Seat 2 175,500 chips - bets 100,000 - draws Q+7 / stands (Button)
Dealer shows 5/?
You must double for less for at least 1,000 chips and take a card. It's you only chance to win because if you stand you will definitely lose the round. In fact, you must do the same for any total
of 17 or under.
The Swing
This non-basic strategy play does not require splitting or doubling down but can be just as effective. It is known as playing for the swing and involves you targeting a specific hand total. The desired specific hand total is at least 2 points higher than the opponents total. This allows for the possibility of the opponent losing and you winning if the dealer makes a hand between your totals.
EXAMPLE - Hand 25 @ 25,000 max/500 min
You 55,000 chips - bets 25,000 - draws 4+3/Q/hit to target 19,20,21
Seat 2 91,000 chips - bets 19,500 - draws J+8/stands (Button)
Dealer shows 5/?
Your opponent has correctly bet enough to cover you even if you manage to double up via a split or double down. He has made a bet such that he wins the round if you both win or both lose the hand. Notice that you can win the round with a win coupled with an opponents loss. This is the swing opportunity you are aiming for.
Suppose your opponent draws a hard 18 and stands. You draw a total of hard 17. Doubling at this point is useless as your best card would be an Ace giving you the same result as your opponent. Your therefore hit and draw a Q for a hard total of 17. You must now continue to hit targeting a total of 19, 20, or 21. You win and your opponent loses if the dealer makes a hand in between your totals. This is the swing and although rare, represents your only chance to win.
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